Andorra Upgrades GDP Growth Forecast to 2.6% in 2026 Amid Resilience

Andorra's Department of Statistics has upgraded its macroeconomic projections for 2026-2031, anticipating real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026—up from the 1.7% forecast in December—then 2% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028, before settling at 1.7% annually through 2031. Nominal GDP is now expected to expand by 5.4% in 2026 (six tenths higher than previously), 4.8% in 2027, 4.7% in 2028, and 4% each year from 2029 onward. The department released the revisions on Thursday, citing resilience against global slowdowns and uncertainties from the Middle East conflict, in line with recent International Monetary Fund adjustments.

Labour market indicators show steady gains, with salaried employment projected to rise 2% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, moderating to 1.8% annually thereafter. Wage mass growth is forecast at 6.8% in 2026—above earlier estimates—followed by 5.1% in 2027, 5% in 2028, and 4.5% yearly from 2029.

Inflation projections have also increased, with the annual average consumer price index at 3.8% in 2026, easing to 2.8% in 2027, 2.4% in 2028, 2.1% in 2029, and 2% in 2030-2031. Year-end CPI for 2026 stands at 3.1%, higher than the prior 1.6% estimate and aligning closely with 3% in Spain, 2.6% in France, and 3% across the EU.

International trade forecasts highlight export strength, with goods exports rising 4.6% in 2026, 6.4% in 2027, 6.5% in 2028, 5.9% in 2029, and 6% in 2030-2031—all upward revisions from December. Imports are set for more modest increases: 2.7% in 2026, 3.5% in 2027, 3.3% in 2028, and 2.7-2.8% annually from 2029.

Value added (VAB) projections reflect the positive shift, with nominal growth of 5.3% and real growth of 2.4% in 2026, compared to earlier figures of 4% and 1.7%. The outlook points to sustained expansion driven by employment, wages, and trade, even as growth moderates over time.