Andorra projects steady, moderating growth and contained inflation through 2025–2030

The Department of Statistics has published macroeconomic projections for Andorra covering 2025–2030 that point to steady but moderating growth, a gradually expanding labour market and contained inflation. The forecasts are model‑based and hinge on the historical correlation between Andorra’s economy and those of France, Spain and the euro area, assuming that this structural relationship and external conditions remain broadly unchanged.

Nominal GDP is projected to rise 4.8% in 2025 and to ease to about 3.7% annually by the end of the decade. In real terms, GDP is forecast to grow 2.8% in 2025 before slowing progressively to roughly 1.5% per year by 2030. Across model variants the department presents ranges with nominal growth between roughly 3.7% and 4.8% and real growth between about 1.5% and 2.8%, with stabilization becoming more visible after 2027.

Gross value added is expected to follow a similar path. Nominal GVA growth is seen at around 4.6% in 2025, declining to roughly 3.7% annually between 2028 and 2030. Real GVA is projected to rise in low single digits, generally in the mid‑to‑high 1% range, with some specifications reaching into the mid‑2% area.

The labour market is forecast to expand steadily. The number of salaried employees is expected to grow close to 2% per year (estimates span about 1.8%–2.3%). The total wage bill is projected to increase faster—between roughly 4.1% and 5.1% annually—implying continued rises in average earnings as compensation outpaces employment growth.

Price pressures are projected to remain moderate and to converge with the regional outlook. The annual average Consumer Price Index is forecast between 1.6% and 2.4% through 2030, while December year‑on‑year inflation is modelled in a similar band of about 1.4%–2.5%. The department frames this as a normalization after recent inflationary tensions and a progressive alignment with neighbouring economies.

The government has signalled its own CPI projection of 2.8% for 2025 and plans to raise the statutory minimum wage for 2026 by twice the IPC, subject to a 6% cap. With the current reference IPC of 2.8%, that implies an increase of about 5.6%, lifting the minimum from roughly €1,447 to near €1,500.

On external trade, imports are projected to continue rising, with annual increases estimated between about 2.5% and 7.1%. Exports are expected to record a temporary decline of around 3.5% in 2025 before recovering from 2026 with annual growth above 4%.

The department cautions that these projections depend on stable external conditions and a persistent correlation with neighbouring economies; significant deviations in France, Spain or the euro area could materially alter the outlook. The next update of the macroeconomic projections is scheduled for the second quarter of 2026.