Andorra's Electricity Spikes More from Summer Heat than Winter Cold, IMF Urges Transport Reform

Andorra's electricity demand responds more sharply to summer heat than to winter cold, new research shows, while an IMF report warns that reforming the transport sector is essential to meet climate goals.

Eddy Giovanni Velandia Cuervo's doctoral thesis, the first to systematically examine electricity consumption patterns from 2012 to 2024, reveals asymmetric temperature impacts. Each degree above the 24°C comfort threshold drives a significant spike in usage from air conditioning, exceeding winter heating reductions. This stems from technical differences in cooling versus heating systems. In scenarios matching UN climate panel projections of 1°C to 3.7°C average temperature rises, summer demand will rise while winter use falls slightly, partially offsetting annual totals.

The study, based on daily FEDA utility data, National Meteorological Service records, and administrative sources, incorporates tourism overnight stays, immigration approvals, registered workers, and electric or hybrid vehicle registrations via the ENGEGA program. Consumption peaks midweek from Tuesday to Thursday due to institutional, tourist, and work activity, with weekends lowest. Advanced models—SARIMAX, LSTM, and XGBoost—identified XGBoost as most accurate, with a 2.69% mean absolute error for 2024 forecasts, aiding grid planning.

Velandia proposes demand management aligned with weekly cycles, efficiency gains in hotels and ski lifts, and network upgrades for summer peaks. For electric mobility, he advocates smart charging and thermal storage to avoid surges. The thesis notes Andorra's low-emission electricity—75% imported from French and Spanish renewables or nuclear—can support electrification if tailored to local climate patterns.

Separately, an IMF report on climate impacts in small open economies spotlights Andorra's high per-capita emissions, winter tourism reliance, and transport sector challenges. Mobility accounts for over half of energy demand and 56% of greenhouse gases, with 76% of fuels consumed by foreign vehicles in the "fuel tourism" phenomenon, skewing national data.

Using the Climate Policy Assessment Tool, the IMF simulates paths to 2050 carbon neutrality, requiring a €150 per tonne carbon tax by 2030 alongside 5% annual efficiency gains in transport, buildings, and power—potentially unfeasible without mobility overhaul. A standalone tax could raise diesel prices 35% and petrol up to 100%, with limited GDP impact given low energy intensity.

Climate adaptation poses risks to tourism, which contributes 30% of GDP. Warming could cut average snow depth by 75-100 cm in 70 years, raising artificial snow costs and water pressures despite Andorra's altitude buffer. The IMF praises the government's neutrality strategy—37% emissions cut by 2030 (or 55% with ambition), 20% vehicle fleet electrification in five years, 40% building energy reduction, and one-third domestic power production—but urges bolder tools across decarbonization, adaptation, finance, just transition, and research. The €30 per tonne carbon tax and FEDA's €200 million investment plan to 2028 offer a start, but escalation is needed amid closing opportunities.