Andorra Drought Could Slash Hydro Power by 40%, Study Warns

A new study from Andorra's AR+I research agency warns that extreme drought could reduce the country's hydroelectric production by nearly 40%, underscoring vulnerabilities in water resources as climate patterns shift.

The analysis examines water availability and sectoral demands through 2050 across multiple climate scenarios. Under moderate or global change conditions, annual water resources may decline by 5.3% to 8.5%, but hydroelectric output could hold steady. This balance arises from changed seasonal flows: advanced snowmelt would increase winter river volumes while cutting spring and late-summer supplies, providing some offset.

AR+I researcher Oriol Travesset explained that a normal year would see little net impact, as winter gains would largely compensate for summer shortfalls. Extreme drought, however, modelled after 2007's record-low rainfall, could shrink water resources by 65.4% and electricity generation by 39.9% versus baseline levels. Peak-month reductions might hit 61.6%.

FEDA's hydroelectric plant supplies around 65% of Andorra's domestic electricity, a drop from roughly 90% a decade earlier. Recent fluctuations highlight risks: elevated 2020 output from favorable early-winter conditions contrasted with low late-season flows in 2022 and 2023, including a near-vanished May peak last year due to early thaw. August production last year fell 41.3% to 5,968 MWh from 10,161 MWh the previous year.

Travesset described 65% dependence as far from ideal and called for diversification, such as solar or biomass, alongside forest practices to support water retention and energy security. He anticipates more frequent and intense droughts ahead.

Rising demand compounds the challenge. In a global change scenario, total water use could rise 88.4% to 43.9 million cubic metres from a 23.3 million baseline, driven by households, agriculture, livestock, tourism, and ski resort snowmaking. Droughts could heighten sectoral rivalries, with ski areas facing up to 36.3% shortfalls for artificial snow in December.

Travesset advocated efficiency gains across all sectors, not just energy, to manage irregular flows and extreme events. "We must look beyond energy to how we handle water everywhere," he said.