Government signals 100,000 population ceiling, forcing trade-offs on immigration and tourism

The head of government said this week, almost in passing, that "the population cannot grow much beyond 100,000 inhabitants," and that has been the rationale for substantially limiting immigration over the last two years. That slowdown will have to be reconciled with employers' need for labour.

For the first time there is a clear horizon: 100,000 inhabitants. In 2023 the population surpassed 85,000, and official statistics put the number at 88,649 this October. These are official figures and may undercount the true population, but at the current pace — in three to five years — the threshold the government mentioned would be reached.

That prospect raises immediate practical questions. Will authorities cut off inflows once the limit is reached? If so, how will companies meet demand for workers? Businesses already rely on migrant labour, and limiting new arrivals could create shortages in key sectors.

There is a second, more delicate issue: pressure on public services. Population growth strains healthcare, the road network, schools and scarce resources such as water. Compounding that pressure is a steady rise in tourist numbers, which are the undisputed engine of the economy but also increase seasonal demand for labour and services.

If more workers are needed mainly to serve tourists, then limiting tourism appears to be the only straightforward way to curb population growth tied to seasonal employment. But restricting tourism raises further questions: is it technically feasible to reduce visitor numbers in a way that preserves the economy? Is it legally possible under existing regulations and commitments? And is it politically acceptable?

Ultimately the debate comes down to choices about growth, public-service capacity and economic model. Are policymakers — and the public — prepared to ease off the accelerator, and can the country afford the trade-offs that would entail?